A Decision Support Tool for Flow Contingency Management

This paper describes a prototype capability for Flow Contingency Management, a component of strategic Traffic Flow Management decision making in the Next Generation Air Transportation System. The Flow Contingency Management concept and associated capabilities described in this paper aim to address current shortfalls in today’s strategic planning process, namely the lack of integrated information, simulation and evaluation capabilities provided to decision makers. Specifically, the proposed prototype integrates the traffic and weather forecasts and further translates these predictions into forecasts of system impact, addressing a gap in today’s operating environment. Viewing the integrated forecast, decision makers can simulate and evaluate proposed congestion-mitigation strategies prior to implementation and quantitatively compare different options before enacting a given plan. As such, the prototype provides an integrated problem identification and quantitative what-if analysis capability for strategic traffic flow management. The paper reviews the overall concept and associated modeling framework, highlighting aspects of the model that address difficulties inherent to traffic flow management planning in the strategic timeframe. To illustrate the proposed decision making process, an example weather and traffic situation, taken from historic data, is simulated and the results highlight the envisioned operational benefits for strategic traffic flow management decision making.